When Supreme Court Justice Steven Breyer announced his retirement, he commanded far more media attention than might be expected for a man known to fewer than half of U.S. adults (46%). As President Biden considers his choice for the next Supreme Court justice nominee, Civis Analytics surveyed 1,882 U.S. adults from January 28–31, 2022, to understand perceptions of the current court and what considerations are important in choosing a nominee.
When asked which one word comes to mind in association with the U.S. Supreme Court, words like ‘fair’ and ‘good’ are among the most common mentions. Indeed, a plurality (48%) of the country approves of the job the current U.S. Supreme Court is doing.
Trump voters (60%) are ten points more likely than non-Trump voters (49%) to approve of the Supreme Court’s job performance, but Democrats and Republicans give the court similar marks (50% and 58%, respectively).
On the other side of the coin, words like ‘political’, ‘corrupt’, ‘biased’, ‘unfair’, and ‘bad’ also appear among the top 25 most frequent mentions, and 29% of U.S. adults disapprove of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing.
When it comes to perceptions of the court’s ideology, twice as many people feel the current court is aligned with a conservative ideology (31%) as feel it is aligned with a liberal ideology (14%). Respondents used the word ‘conservative’ four times as often as the word ‘liberal’ to describe the court.
A plurality of U.S. adults say the court’s ideology changes depending on the case in front of them and just 19% of the country feel the court does not have a political ideology.
Democrats (42%) are much more likely than Republicans (29%) and independents (26%) to feel the court is mostly aligned with a conservative ideology.
Half (49%) of U.S. adults are very or moderately concerned that the U.S. Supreme Court will vote to overturn Roe vs. Wade in the next few months. An additional 15% are somewhat concerned.
One-in-three (35%) of U.S. adults are not concerned about a reversal in precedent.
Democrats are much more concerned about the court overturning Roe than either Republicans or independents. Forty-five percent (45%) of Democrats are very concerned, while only 14% of Republicans and 17% of independents feel the same. Conversely, 46% of Republicans and 45% of independents are not concerned, while only 16% of Democrats are unconcerned. Other important differences in concern are highlighted below.
U.S. adults are more concerned the U.S. Supreme Court will allow states to pass laws that end access to abortion than they are about the possibility of the court overturning Roe. Fifty-five percent (55%) of people in the country are very or moderately concerned about this possibility. An additional 14% are somewhat concerned and 32% are not concerned.
The same partisan differences are evident on this question, and to an even greater degree. More than half of Democrats (53%) are very concerned the court will allow states to pass laws that end access to abortion; 18% of Republicans and 24% of independents share the same degree of concern. Only 13% of Democrats are not concerned while 48% of Republicans and 36% of independents are unconcerned. Notably, independents are much less likely to say they are unconcerned on this question (36%) than on the question of overturning Roe (45%).
The survey asked respondents to individually rate the importance of several characteristics that President Biden might consider in his choice of a nominee. Rating each separately, people say experience as a judge (84%), prosecutor (71%), and public defender (72%) is very or somewhat important.
A majority of people say it is very or somewhat important that the next nominee supports expanding access to abortion services (56%). Likewise, a majority of people say it is very or somewhat important for the nominee to support the use of race to ensure equity in college admissions (51%).
Nearly half (49%) of U.S. adults feel it is very or somewhat important for the next nominee to be a woman. Forty-six percent of U.S. adults say it is very or somewhat important that the next nominee be a Black or African American person (46%).
Although respondents rated the importance of each attribute individually, this study also looked at the frequency with which people rated multiple attributes as important. Overall, 40% of respondents say it is important for the nominee to be a Black or African American person and a woman. This proportion jumps to 65% among Democrats.
Forty-seven percent (47%) of all U.S. adults and 70% of Democrats rate both having professional experience and being a woman as important; 43% of all adults and 66% of Democrats say the same of having professional experience and being a Black or African American person.
Finally, 38% of all U.S. adults — and 61% of Democrats say it is very important for the next nominee to have professional experience and be a woman and be a Black or African American person.
Too often, polls ask respondents to choose among these qualities or prioritize some over others. Our question recognizes these are not mutually exclusive qualifications.
